How to choose a strategy

A decision matrix that maps your view (direction × volatility × catalyst) to the right Tradient strategy.

8 min read

Picking the right strategy is more of the trade than picking the right ticker. Most retail losses come from putting the right view through the wrong structure — buying calls when you should have sold puts, or selling condors when you should have bought a straddle. This page is the decision matrix.

The three questions

Before you scan, answer three questions about the underlying in front of you:

  • Direction.Up, down, or sideways? Or “I have no view, I just want to be paid for time decay”?
  • Volatility. Is implied vol high, normal, or low relative to its own history? Use IV rank as your shortcut.
  • Catalyst.Is there a known event in the next 30 days that could move the stock? (Earnings, FDA, fed, court, M&A.)

Three questions, ~16 useful answer combinations. Most of them map to a specific strategy.

The matrix

Bullish + low IV + no catalyst

You want to be long, vol is cheap, no event to time around. Use: Bull call spread. Cheap entry on low vol, defined risk, defined upside cap. Alternatively buy stock and sell covered calls against it once you’re in.

Bullish + high IV + no catalyst

You want to be long, but vol is expensive — you don’t want to pay retail. Use: Bull put spread or cash-secured put. Sell premium instead of buying it. The high IV pays you to be patient.

Bullish + any IV + upcoming catalyst

Direction with timing. Use: bull call spread with the short strike at your post-catalyst target. Or, if the catalyst is more about magnitude than direction, a long straddle.

Bearish + low IV + no catalyst

You want short exposure on cheap vol. Use: Bear put spread. Same logic as bullish low-IV, mirrored.

Bearish + high IV + no catalyst

You think it falls but vol is rich. Use: Bear call spread. Get paid to be right.

Neutral + low IV + no catalyst

Range-bound with cheap vol. This is the worst combo for short premium — there’s nothing to collect. Use: nothing, or wait for IV to expand. Don’t force a trade just because you opened the scanner.

Neutral + high IV + no catalyst

The income trader’s sweet spot. Use: Iron condor (defined risk) or short strangle (undefined risk, more credit). Both express the same thesis; condor is the safer default.

Neutral + any IV + upcoming catalyst, betting on calm

You think the market is overpricing the move. Use: iron condor sized small, or simply skip the trade. Catalysts are where short-vol traders get hurt — Tradient’s earnings IC scan exists for this thesis but treat it as small-size lottery.

Neutral + low IV + upcoming catalyst, betting on a move

You think the market is underpricing the move. Use: long straddle. Cheap vol + known catalyst is the canonical long-vol setup.

Long stock you want to keep + any IV

Use:covered calls (income overlay) or a bear put spread / collar (defined-risk hedge). Don’t sell the stock; structure around the position.

Long stock you’d sell at a higher price

Use:covered call at the price you’d be happy to exit. The premium is bonus income on top of the sale.

What if I have no view?

Skip the trade. The whole product is built around the assumption that you actually have an opinion to monetize. If you don’t, the highest-EV move is to wait. Tradient will not penalize you for taking a day off — the scans are still there tomorrow.

Tip
Beginners often want a single “always works” strategy. There isn’t one. The closest thing is the wheel (CSP → covered call → repeat) on a basket of stocks you’d be happy to own — it works because the structure forces you to take ownership of stocks at prices you already liked. Start there if you have to start somewhere.
  • Generate income → cash-secured put (neutral/bullish + high IV)
  • Bet on a big move → long straddle (any direction + low IV + catalyst)
  • Bet on calm → iron condor (neutral + high IV)
  • Hedge what I own → bear put spread (long stock + want defined downside)
  • Trade earnings → iron condor (catalyst + high IV)
  • I have a thesis → bull call spread or bear put spread (directional + defined risk)

Where to go next